Where Is Bitcoin in Its Market Cycle?

Bitcoin has moved in multi-year bull and bear cycles that line up with its four-year halving schedule. A cycle indicator estimates where price sits inside the current cycle, nearer a bottom or nearer a top. Trade The Cycle distills on-chain and technical metrics and three timing models into a single 0 to 100 reading, so you do not have to overlay a dozen charts yourself.

No tool can answer that for you, and Trade The Cycle is educational only, not investment advice. What it does show is whether valuation is historically low or stretched, and how far the cycle has progressed in time. You bring the decision; the charts bring the historical context.

Risk is a 0 to 100 valuation score built from these metrics: Stock-to-Flow, 2-Year MA Multiplier, Weekly MA Band, Price Boundary, Power Law, MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, RHODL Ratio, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and Pi Cycle Top. Each metric is graded 0 to 100 by where its 30-day extreme (the high in a bull market, the low in a bear market) sits between its low-risk and high-risk targets, and Risk is the average of those grades. Pi Cycle Top only flags tops, so it counts in bull markets only. Low Risk has lined up with past cycle bottoms and high Risk with past tops. The methodology page explains how each one is graded.

Cycle Altitude is a 0 to 100 gauge of how likely the current bull or bear market is to be nearing its end, based on how past cycles have played out. It does not say whether Bitcoin's price is low or high; Risk is the valuation reading. Altitude combines Risk with Time (cycle progress): in a bull market it takes the higher of the two, in a bear market the lower, so whichever lens reaches an extreme first sets the reading. It has read near 0 at past cycle bottoms and near 100 at past tops.

Nobody knows for certain. Trade The Cycle runs three timing models (peak to bottom, bottom to peak, and halving to peak), each projecting from the historical average length of that leg of the cycle. The bottom comes from the peak-to-bottom model, and the top is the midpoint of the other two. As of Oct 11, 2026, they project the next cycle top for Aug 1, 2029, 1025 days away. The cycle bottom after that is projected for Jul 18, 2030. That date is measured from a top that has not happened yet, so it will move once the top is confirmed. These are projections from past cycles, not predictions.

The most recent confirmed cycle peak was Oct 6, 2025, at $124,824. A pivot is only recorded once fixed confirmation rules settle that it was one, so the record never changes after the fact to fit a narrative.

The next halving is estimated for Apr 19, 2028, when the block subsidy drops from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. The previous one was Apr 19, 2024. The schedule counts blocks rather than days, so the estimated date moves slightly with how fast blocks are found.